Profile
Plant
Gul Ahmed Electric Limited (GEL) is a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer (RE IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006. The company has set up a 50 MW wind power plant located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh.
Tariff
GEL is awarded a cost-plus tariff for wind power projects by NEPRA. On Nov. 18, NEPRA has determined the tariff; the company has a generation tariff of PKR 7.2340 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 1-10 and a generation tariff of PKR 2.3790 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 11-25. The levelized tariff for the project is US¢ 4.7212/KWh at the time of the financial close. The company has applied for an adjustment/true-up in its original tariff. The current tariff based on the interim relief for the recent quarter (Oct-Dec2024) was PKR 13.7996.
Return on Project
The ROE of the project, as agreed with NEPRA, is 14%.
Ownership
Ownership Structure
Gul Ahmed Electric Ltd. (GEL) is wholly owned by Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd. (GAEL).
Stability
Gul Ahmed Energy Group has a long history of diversified business since 1948. The group gradually diversified in various industries with operations across textiles, manufacturing, investments, and power & energy, and currently it is one of the leading industrial groups in the country.
Business Acumen
Gul Ahmed Energy Group is one of Pakistan’s leading power generation groups. Established in 1994 by (late) Mr. Iqbal Alimohamed, the group initiated operations with a thermal power plant located in Korangi Industrial Area, Karachi. Since then, the group has expanded its project portfolio to wind, solar & power solutions, with a power generation capacity of 236 megawatts (MW) in total.
Financial Strength
The company’s sponsors, with their strong financial muscle emanating from their business portfolio, have the capacity to support the entity both on an ongoing basis and during times of crisis.
Governance
Board Structure
Gul Ahmed Electric Limited's Board of Directors (BoD) comprises three members with extensive experience in different sectors and possessing diverse skill sets.
Members’ Profile
1. Mr. Danish Iqbal is a pioneering force in Pakistan’s renewable energy sector, widely recognized for his strategic insight and transformative leadership. With over two decades of distinguished service, he currently holds the position of Chairman at Gul Ahmed Energy Limited and its subsidiaries, as well as leading the Metro Power Group, where he has spearheaded the development of four landmark wind energy projects. 2. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is the patriarch of the Teli family and is acting chairman of the board of the new Nakshbandi Textile Mills. He received his Bachelor of Commerce degree from Karachi University in 1966. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is a well-known and respected member of the Pakistani textile industry. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli has very extensive experience in textiles as well as other industries. He is also currently serving on the boards of other companies. 3. Nusair Siraj Teli joined the family business in 2016 and currently serves as the Co-CEO and Director of Pakistan Beverage Limited. He has been instrumental in the implementation of SAP technology at Pakistan Beverage Limited.
Board Effectiveness
The BoD has extensive experience across various sectors, including power and textiles. The company's board members engage in regular discussions, where key matters such as plant efficiency and the company’s performance are thoroughly reviewed. They also provide guidance to the management in developing effective policies to drive the Company’s growth and success.
Financial Transparency
A.F. Ferguson & Co. Chartered Accountants are the external auditors of the company. They have expressed an unqualified opinion on the company’s financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2024.
Management
Organizational Structure
The company has a lean organizational structure, primarily consisting of finance and technical staff, while the engineering, construction, and operations of the plant are outsourced. However, the reporting lines are clearly demarcated, ensuring efficient communication and accountability within the company.
Management Team
Mr. Danish Iqbal is the CEO of the company. He has over two decades of professional experience and has been associated with the company since its inception. He also holds the position of Chairman of Gul Ahmed Group and Metro Power Group and thus has extensive experience in the local power sector, especially in the domain of renewable energy.
Effectiveness
The management functions are clear and well-defined, ensuring the effective achievement of the company's goals and objectives. The board members closely oversee the team to ensure successful execution. Additionally, the management holds regular meetings to discuss company affairs.
Control Environment
The company has progressively enhanced its IT solutions, enabling improved performance across various areas. The quality of its IT infrastructure and the range of activities it supports have shown steady improvement, effectively aiding in monitoring operations and management reporting.
Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement
The Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) with CPPA-G spans a tenure of 25 years, commencing from the COD. According to the EPA, the company is obligated to generate electricity in line with the benchmark generation while maintaining the required efficiency. Any decline in generation due to an efficiency drop will not be compensated by the power purchaser. However, in the event of curtailment in offtake by the power purchaser, the company will be compensated for the missed volumes, termed Non-Project Missed Volumes (NPMV).
Operation and Maintenance
The company has signed a long-term Operations & Maintenance (O&M) contract with Hydro China International Engineering Company Limited for the plant. The contractor is responsible for the regular operations of the plant and ensuring that the minimum benchmarks as per the contract are met at all times.
Resource Risk
Resource variability risk is a unique challenge for renewable energy IPPs. For wind farms, this risk arises from their reliance on wind as a key resource, making them inherently exposed to wind risk. Under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006, wind risk is defined as the variability in wind speed, which directly affects the energy output of the wind IPP. According to the tariff structure, the company fully absorbs the risk associated with wind variability. Consequently, the company’s revenues and cash flows are influenced by seasonal variations in wind speed, which impact electricity generation and may result in fluctuations in cash flows.
Insurance Cover
As per the agreement, the EPC contractor shall be liable for the damages if the benchmark performance ratio has not been met. The company has adequate insurance coverage to cover the risk of business interruptions, marine & erection, etc.
Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics
During FY24, Pakistan's power generation declined by 1.9%, totaling 127,160 GWh. This marks the second consecutive year of reduced output, driven by elevated electricity costs, rising inflation, and lower economic activity. The country's power generation remains heavily reliant on thermal and hydel sources, contributing approx. 45% and 31%, respectively, in FY24. The share of nuclear energy has notably increased to approx. 19% in FY24, while renewable energy sources continue to constitute a modest 5% of the total generation. Recently, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) resumed negotiations with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and established a special task force to implement structural reforms in the power sector. The ongoing process aims to lower generation costs and make electricity more affordable, although the outcomes of these negotiations are yet to be seen.
Generation
During FY24, the actual production of the plant stood at 118,718 MWH (FY23: 143,933 MWH) with a load factor of 27.10% (FY23: 32.86%). The actual production is subject to the actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period.
Performance Benchmark
The required availability and the capacity factor are 98% and 38%, respectively, as per the Energy Purchase Agreement. Failure to maintain the required benchmarks could result in liquidated damages imposed by the power purchaser on the company. During FY24, on average, the plant maintained its required benchmarks.
Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis
The total project cost approved under NEPRA is ~USD 62.95 million, consisting of 80% of debt (~USD 50.36 million) and 20% of equity (~USD 12.59 million). The debt financing constitutes a foreign loan of USD ~24.45 million (3MLIBOR+4.25%) and a local loan of PKR 4.129 billion (SBP refinancing rate of 3%+1.75%). The local loan is eligible for refinancing under the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Financing Scheme for Renewable Energy. The foreign loan has a maturity of 13 years, while the local loan has a maturity of 10 years. Both the local and foreign loans are repayable in quarterly installments. The company has repaid approximately ~13% of the foreign loan and ~25% of the local loan.
Liquidity Profile
As of end-June 2024, the company’s total receivables stood at PKR 1,032 million (June 2023: PKR 908 million), which are due from the power purchaser against the sale of energy. The increase in outstanding receivables represents the delay from the power purchaser due to the ongoing circular debt issue in the power sector.
Working Capital Financing
The company fulfills its working capital requirements through internally generated cash flows, without relying on short-term borrowing facilities. However, as a prudent measure, the company has secured sufficient working capital lines that can be utilized if necessary.
Cash Flow Analysis
The company’s Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) has increased, standing at PKR 2,198 million for FY24 (FY23: PKR 1,673 million), driven by better profitability as a result of an increase in tariff. The company’s strong free cash flows ensure timely debt repayments.
Capitalization
The company’s equity stands at PKR 3,617 million as of Sep 2024, resulting in a leveraging ratio of 73.5%. The debt on the balance sheet primarily reflects project-related long-term loans, and the leveraging ratio is expected to decline gradually with timely debt repayments.
|