Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
14-Feb-25 A A2 Stable Maintain -
16-Feb-24 A A2 Stable Maintain -
17-Feb-23 A A2 Stable Upgrade -
18-Feb-22 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
19-Feb-21 A- A2 Stable Upgrade -
About the Entity

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited, incorporated in Dec 2015, is a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer (RE IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006 by AEDB. Being a wholly owned subsidiary of Gul Ahmed Energy Limited, the Company's primary venture is a 50MW wind IPP located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh. Under the leadership of CEO Mr. Danish Iqbal, who has been with the Company since its inception, GEL benefits from his extensive experience in the field. The total investment for the project amounts to USD 62.95mln, with debt financing comprising 80% of the project cost, equating to USD 50.36mln.

Rating Rationale

Gul Ahmed Energy Limited has set up a 50 MW wind power plant—Gul Ahmed Electric Limited (“GEL” or “the”Company”) located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh. GEL is awarded a cost-plus tariff, with the payments to be received from CPPA-G backed by the sovereign guarantee. The plant successfully achieved its Commercial Operations Date (COD) on April 7, 2022, and has been supplying electricity to the national grid since then. Comfort is drawn from the entity’s group association, having strong financial backing and relevant experience in successfully commissioning and operating other power plants. Hydrochina International Engineering Company Limited & Hangzhou Huachen Electric Power Control Company were the EPC contractors for the project and shall also remain its O&M operators for the remaining tenure of the PPA. The O&M contractor will be responsible for maintaining the operational benchmarks (Availability: 98%, Capacity: 38%). The Company revenues and cash flows remain exposed to wind risk due to seasonal variation in the wind speed, which may affect electricity generation, and ultimately cash flows may face seasonality. During FY24, the actual production of the plant stood at 118,718 MWH (FY23: 143,933 MWH) with a load factor of 27.10% (FY23: 32.86%) while maintaining its operational benchmarks. The actual production is subject to the actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period. As a result, the revenue of the Company stood at PKR 2,671mln during FY24 (FY23: 2,039mln) recorded against the energy delivered to the National Grid. Delayed payments from the power purchaser (CPPAG) against energy invoices remain a challenge for the Company due to the ongoing circular debt issue. As of June’24, the Company’s outstanding receivables stood at PKR 1,032mln. These receivables are backed by a sovereign guarantee under the implementation agreement, which provides additional comfort. The Company holds both foreign and local long-term project debt repayable over a thirteen- and ten-year period, respectively, with 13% of foreign and 25% of local loans repaid.

Key Rating Drivers

External factors such as any adverse changes in the regulatory framework may impact the ratings. Going forward, the capacity of the Company to generate stable cash flows in order to make timely repayments against the project debt remains crucial. With rising concerns about circular debt, the trend of payments received from CPPA-G against invoices will further impact the Company’s liquidity profile.

Profile
Plant

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited (GEL) is a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer (RE IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006. The company has set up a 50 MW wind power plant located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh.


Tariff

GEL is awarded a cost-plus tariff for wind power projects by NEPRA. On Nov. 18, NEPRA has determined the tariff; the company has a generation tariff of PKR 7.2340 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 1-10 and a generation tariff of PKR 2.3790 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 11-25. The levelized tariff for the project is US¢ 4.7212/KWh at the time of the financial close. The company has applied for an adjustment/true-up in its original tariff. The current tariff based on the interim relief for the recent quarter (Oct-Dec2024) was PKR 13.7996.


Return on Project

The ROE of the project, as agreed with NEPRA, is 14%.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Gul Ahmed Electric Ltd. (GEL) is wholly owned by Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd. (GAEL).


Stability

Gul Ahmed Energy Group has a long history of diversified business since 1948. The group gradually diversified in various industries with operations across textiles, manufacturing, investments, and power & energy, and currently it is one of the leading industrial groups in the country.


Business Acumen

Gul Ahmed Energy Group is one of Pakistan’s leading power generation groups. Established in 1994 by (late) Mr. Iqbal Alimohamed, the group initiated operations with a thermal power plant located in Korangi Industrial Area, Karachi. Since then, the group has expanded its project portfolio to wind, solar & power solutions, with a power generation capacity of 236 megawatts (MW) in total.


Financial Strength

The company’s sponsors, with their strong financial muscle emanating from their business portfolio, have the capacity to support the entity both on an ongoing basis and during times of crisis.



Governance
Board Structure

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited's Board of Directors (BoD) comprises three members with extensive experience in different sectors and possessing diverse skill sets.


Members’ Profile

1. Mr. Danish Iqbal is a pioneering force in Pakistan’s renewable energy sector, widely recognized for his strategic insight and transformative leadership. With over two decades of distinguished service, he currently holds the position of Chairman at Gul Ahmed Energy Limited and its subsidiaries, as well as leading the Metro Power Group, where he has spearheaded the development of four landmark wind energy projects. 

2. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is the patriarch of the Teli family and is acting chairman of the board of the new Nakshbandi Textile Mills. He received his Bachelor of Commerce degree from Karachi University in 1966. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is a well-known and respected member of the Pakistani textile industry. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli has very extensive experience in textiles as well as other industries. He is also currently serving on the boards of other companies.

3. Nusair Siraj Teli joined the family business in 2016 and currently serves as the Co-CEO and Director of Pakistan Beverage Limited. He has been instrumental in the implementation of SAP technology at Pakistan Beverage Limited.


Board Effectiveness

The BoD has extensive experience across various sectors, including power and textiles. The company's board members engage in regular discussions, where key matters such as plant efficiency and the company’s performance are thoroughly reviewed. They also provide guidance to the management in developing effective policies to drive the Company’s growth and success.


Financial Transparency

A.F. Ferguson & Co. Chartered Accountants are the external auditors of the company. They have expressed an unqualified opinion on the company’s financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2024.


Management
Organizational Structure

The company has a lean organizational structure, primarily consisting of finance and technical staff, while the engineering, construction, and operations of the plant are outsourced. However, the reporting lines are clearly demarcated, ensuring efficient communication and accountability within the company.


Management Team

Mr. Danish Iqbal is the CEO of the company. He has over two decades of professional experience and has been associated with the company since its inception. He also holds the position of Chairman of Gul Ahmed Group and Metro Power Group and thus has extensive experience in the local power sector, especially in the domain of renewable energy.


Effectiveness

The management functions are clear and well-defined, ensuring the effective achievement of the company's goals and objectives. The board members closely oversee the team to ensure successful execution. Additionally, the management holds regular meetings to discuss company affairs.


Control Environment

The company has progressively enhanced its IT solutions, enabling improved performance across various areas. The quality of its IT infrastructure and the range of activities it supports have shown steady improvement, effectively aiding in monitoring operations and management reporting.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

The Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) with CPPA-G spans a tenure of 25 years, commencing from the COD. According to the EPA, the company is obligated to generate electricity in line with the benchmark generation while maintaining the required efficiency. Any decline in generation due to an efficiency drop will not be compensated by the power purchaser. However, in the event of curtailment in offtake by the power purchaser, the company will be compensated for the missed volumes, termed Non-Project Missed Volumes (NPMV).


Operation and Maintenance

The company has signed a long-term Operations & Maintenance (O&M) contract with Hydro China International Engineering Company Limited for the plant. The contractor is responsible for the regular operations of the plant and ensuring that the minimum benchmarks as per the contract are met at all times.


Resource Risk

Resource variability risk is a unique challenge for renewable energy IPPs. For wind farms, this risk arises from their reliance on wind as a key resource, making them inherently exposed to wind risk. Under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006, wind risk is defined as the variability in wind speed, which directly affects the energy output of the wind IPP. According to the tariff structure, the company fully absorbs the risk associated with wind variability. Consequently, the company’s revenues and cash flows are influenced by seasonal variations in wind speed, which impact electricity generation and may result in fluctuations in cash flows.


Insurance Cover

As per the agreement, the EPC contractor shall be liable for the damages if the benchmark performance ratio has not been met. The company has adequate insurance coverage to cover the risk of business interruptions, marine & erection, etc.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

During FY24, Pakistan's power generation declined by 1.9%, totaling 127,160 GWh. This marks the second consecutive year of reduced output, driven by elevated electricity costs, rising inflation, and lower economic activity. The country's power generation remains heavily reliant on thermal and hydel sources, contributing approx. 45% and 31%, respectively, in FY24. The share of nuclear energy has notably increased to approx. 19% in FY24, while renewable energy sources continue to constitute a modest 5% of the total generation. Recently, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) resumed negotiations with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and established a special task force to implement structural reforms in the power sector. The ongoing process aims to lower generation costs and make electricity more affordable, although the outcomes of these negotiations are yet to be seen.


Generation

During FY24, the actual production of the plant stood at 118,718 MWH (FY23: 143,933 MWH) with a load factor of 27.10% (FY23: 32.86%). The actual production is subject to the actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period.


Performance Benchmark

The required availability and the capacity factor are 98% and 38%, respectively, as per the Energy Purchase Agreement. Failure to maintain the required benchmarks could result in liquidated damages imposed by the power purchaser on the company. During FY24, on average, the plant maintained its required benchmarks.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

The total project cost approved under NEPRA is ~USD 62.95 million, consisting of 80% of debt (~USD 50.36 million) and 20% of equity (~USD 12.59 million). The debt financing constitutes a foreign loan of USD ~24.45 million (3MLIBOR+4.25%) and a local loan of PKR 4.129 billion (SBP refinancing rate of 3%+1.75%). The local loan is eligible for refinancing under the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Financing Scheme for Renewable Energy. The foreign loan has a maturity of 13 years, while the local loan has a maturity of 10 years. Both the local and foreign loans are repayable in quarterly installments. The company has repaid approximately ~13% of the foreign loan and ~25% of the local loan.


Liquidity Profile

As of end-June 2024, the company’s total receivables stood at PKR 1,032 million (June 2023: PKR 908 million), which are due from the power purchaser against the sale of energy. The increase in outstanding receivables represents the delay from the power purchaser due to the ongoing circular debt issue in the power sector.


Working Capital Financing

The company fulfills its working capital requirements through internally generated cash flows, without relying on short-term borrowing facilities. However, as a prudent measure, the company has secured sufficient working capital lines that can be utilized if necessary.


Cash Flow Analysis

The company’s Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) has increased, standing at PKR 2,198 million for FY24 (FY23: PKR 1,673 million), driven by better profitability as a result of an increase in tariff. The company’s strong free cash flows ensure timely debt repayments.


Capitalization

The company’s equity stands at PKR 3,617 million as of Sep 2024, resulting in a leveraging ratio of 73.5%. The debt on the balance sheet primarily reflects project-related long-term loans, and the leveraging ratio is expected to decline gradually with timely debt repayments.


 
 

Feb-25

www.pacra.com


Sep-24
3M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
Jun-22
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 11,853 12,000 12,701 11,115
2. Investments 951 678 19 0
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 1,038 1,074 1,845 1,650
a. Inventories 0 0 0 0
b. Trade Receivables 962 1,032 907 453
5. Total Assets 13,842 13,751 14,565 12,765
6. Current Liabilities 186 147 1,014 1,397
a. Trade Payables 129 57 282 240
7. Borrowings 9,061 9,271 10,177 8,910
8. Related Party Exposure 978 942 755 244
9. Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
10. Net Assets 3,617 3,392 2,619 2,214
11. Shareholders' Equity 3,617 3,392 2,619 2,214
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 664 2,671 2,039 535
a. Cost of Good Sold (232) (952) (787) (157)
2. Gross Profit 432 1,720 1,252 378
a. Operating Expenses (11) (36) (31) (6)
3. Operating Profit 422 1,683 1,220 372
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 48 117 22 0
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 469 1,801 1,242 372
a. Total Finance Cost (242) (1,025) (834) (113)
b. Taxation (3) (3) (3) 0
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 225 773 405 260
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 547 2,198 1,673 367
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 305 1,372 962 367
c. Changes in Working Capital 81 (1,014) (1,064) 908
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 386 358 (103) 1,275
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (214) (531) 1 (5,908)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (173) (757) 5 4,504
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period (1) (930) (97) (129)
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) -0.6% 31.0% 281.0% N/A
b. Gross Profit Margin 65.1% 64.4% 61.4% 70.7%
c. Net Profit Margin 33.8% 28.9% 19.9% 48.5%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 94.6% 44.3% 29.8% 238.3%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 24.9% 22.1% 16.5% 15.4%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 137 132 122 309
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 124 109 75 225
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 5.6 7.3 1.8 1.2
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 2.9 2.3 2.1 4.3
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 7.1 8.3 12.3 35.9
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 73.5% 75.1% 80.7% 80.5%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 0.0 1.9 8.0 0.0
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 7.4% 9.2% 7.6% 1.5%

Feb-25

www.pacra.com

Feb-25

www.pacra.com

  1. Rating Team Statements
    1. Rating is just an opinion about the creditworthiness of the entity and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security of the entity rated or to buy, hold, or sell the security rated, as the case may be. (Chapter III; 14-3-(x))
    2. Conflict of Interest
      1. The Rating Team or any of their family members have no interest in this rating (Chapter III; 12-2-(j))
      2. PACRA, the analysts involved in the rating process, and members of its rating committee and their family members do not have any conflict of interest relating to the rating done by them (Chapter III; 12-2-(e) & (k))
      3. The analyst is not a substantial shareholder of the customer being rated by PACRA [Annexure F; d-(ii)]
      4. Explanation: for the purpose of the above clause, the term "family members" shall include only those family members who are dependent on the analyst and members of the rating committee.
  2. Restrictions
    1. No director, officer, or employee of PACRA communicates the information acquired by him for use for rating purposes to any other person, except where required under law to do so. (Chapter III; 10-(5))
    2. PACRA does not disclose or discuss with outside parties or make improper use of the non-public information which has come to its knowledge during a business relationship with the customer. (Chapter III; 10-7-(d))
    3. PACRA does not make proposals or recommendations regarding the activities of rated entities that could impact a credit rating of the entity subject to rating. (Chapter III; 10-7-(k))
  3. Conduct of Business
    1. PACRA fulfills its obligations in a fair, efficient, transparent, and ethical manner and renders high standards of services in performing its functions and obligations. (Chapter III; 11-A-(a))
    2. PACRA uses due care in the preparation of this Rating Report. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. PACRA does not, in every instance, independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing this Rating Report. (Clause 11-(A)(p))
    3. PACRA prohibits its employees and analysts from soliciting money, gifts, or favors from anyone with whom PACRA conducts business. (Chapter III; 11-A-(q))
    4. PACRA ensures before the commencement of the rating process that an analyst or employee has not had a recent employment or other significant business or personal relationship with the rated entity that may cause or may be perceived as causing a conflict of interest. (Chapter III; 11-A-(r))
    5. PACRA maintains the principle of integrity in seeking rating business. (Chapter III; 11-A-(u))
    6. PACRA promptly investigates in the event of misconduct or a breach of the policies, procedures, and controls, and takes appropriate steps to rectify any weaknesses to prevent any recurrence, along with suitable punitive action against the responsible employee(s). (Chapter III; 11-B-(m))
  4. Independence & Conflict of Interest
    1. PACRA receives compensation from the entity being rated or any third party for the rating services it offers. The receipt of this compensation has no influence on PACRA’s opinions or other analytical processes. In all instances, PACRA is committed to preserving the objectivity, integrity, and independence of its ratings. Our relationship is governed by two distinct mandates: i) rating mandate - signed with the entity being rated or issuer of the debt instrument, and ii) fee mandate - signed with the payer, which can be different from the entity.
    2. PACRA does not provide consultancy/advisory services or other services to any of its customers or their associated companies and associated undertakings that are being rated or have been rated by it during the preceding three years, unless it has an adequate mechanism in place ensuring that the provision of such services does not lead to a conflict of interest situation with its rating activities. (Chapter III; 12-2-(d))
    3. PACRA discloses that no shareholder directly or indirectly holding 10% or more of the share capital of PACRA also holds directly or indirectly 10% or more of the share capital of the entity which is subject to rating or the entity which issued the instrument subject to rating by PACRA. (Chapter III; 12-2-(f))
    4. PACRA ensures that the rating assigned to an entity or instrument is not affected by the existence of a business relationship between PACRA and the entity or any other party, or the non-existence of such a relationship. (Chapter III; 12-2-(i))
    5. PACRA ensures that the analysts or any of their family members shall not buy, sell, or engage in any transaction in any security which falls in the analyst’s area of primary analytical responsibility. This clause, however, does not apply to investments in securities through collective investment schemes. (Chapter III; 12-2-(l))
    6. PACRA has established policies and procedures governing investments and trading in securities by its employees and for monitoring the same to prevent insider trading, market manipulation, or any other market abuse. (Chapter III; 11-B-(g))
  5. Monitoring and Review
    1. PACRA monitors all the outstanding ratings continuously, and any potential change therein due to any event associated with the issuer, the security arrangement, the industry, etc., is disseminated to the market immediately and in an effective manner after appropriate consultation with the entity/issuer. (Chapter III; 17-(a))
    2. PACRA reviews all the outstanding ratings periodically on an annual basis. Provided that public dissemination of annual review and in an instance of change in rating will be made. (Chapter III; 17-(b))
    3. PACRA initiates an immediate review of the outstanding rating upon becoming aware of any information that may reasonably be expected to result in downgrading of the rating. (Chapter III; 17-(c))
    4. PACRA engages with the issuer and the debt securities trustee to remain updated on all information pertaining to the rating of the entity/instrument. (Chapter III; 17-(d))
  6. Probability of Default
    1. PACRA’s Rating Scale reflects the expectation of credit risk. The highest rating has the lowest relative likelihood of default (i.e., probability). PACRA’s transition studies capture the historical performance behavior of a specific rating notch. Transition behavior of the assigned rating can be obtained from PACRA’s Transition Study available at our website. (www.pacra.com) However, the actual transition of rating may not follow the pattern observed in the past. (Chapter III; 14-3(f)(vii))
  7. Proprietary Information
    1. All information contained herein is considered proprietary by PACRA. Hence, none of the information in this document can be copied or otherwise reproduced, stored, or disseminated in whole or in part in any form or by any means whatsoever by any person without PACRA’s prior written consent.

Feb-25

www.pacra.com